Mesoscale Discussion 0064
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0843 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Indiana and much of
   north-central Ohio

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 060243Z - 060845Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing drizzle and light freezing rain showers are
   expected to increase in coverage/intensity through tonight. Periods
   of moderate to locally heavy freezing rain are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Evening upper air/surface analysis showed a broad warm
   air advection regime was strengthening ahead of a low amplitude
   upper trough and warm front over portions of the middle OH Valley.
   North of the surface front, temperatures are near or just below
   freezing with several areas of light to occasionally moderate
   precipitation. Over the last couple of hours, area surface stations
   have observed a mosaic of freezing drizzle, snow/ice pellets and
   light freezing rain showers as the initial onset of stronger warm
   air advection.

   Thus far, intermittent freezing rain rates have been light,
   generally below 0.02 in/hr. However, recent radar trends show an
   increase in deeper convective cores (some with lightning) and
   moderate stratiform developing over east-central IN and far western
   OH. This intensification trend is expected to continue as
   large-scale ascent from an approaching shortwave trough should
   bolster low-level warm advection (850-700 mb temps of 4-6 C) through
   the overnight hours. Continued large-scale ascent, in combination
   with weak elevated buoyancy (~500 J/kg of MUCAPE) will support more
   widespread and heavier precipitation across portions of eastern IN
   and north-central OH. Moderate to locally heavy freezing rain, with
   rates of 0.05-0.1 in/hr are possible, especially with the heavier
   convective elements. Freezing rain concerns are highest primarily
   across north-central OH where surface temperatures are below 30 F
   and accretion will be most efficient. However, some icing is
   possible over much of central/southern OH where surface temperatures
   are more marginal. Given the expected increase in icing, travel
   disruptions are possible.

   ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

   LAT...LON   40278575 41468584 41658482 41498255 41498129 41048073
               40068133 39558253 39648353 39758425 39878508 40278575