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Mesoscale Discussion 28
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0028
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0905 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of the FL Panhandle into north FL and
   south-central GA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 4...

   Valid 091505Z - 091630Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 4 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for embedded QLCS tornadoes and damaging winds
   will continue this morning.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms, with occasional
   embedded supercell structures, is ongoing this morning across parts
   of the FL Panhandle into south/central GA. Multiple CC
   minima/tornadic circulations have been observed with this line over
   the past several hours. Modifying the 12Z TLH sounding for current
   surface observations yields only weak MLCAPE. Still, rapid low-level
   moisture advection is occurring ahead of the line, and even modest
   daytime heating should allow for weak destabilization downstream.
   Current expectations are for the tornado threat to continue eastward
   across south-central GA and north FL, as area VWPs show extremely
   strong low-level flow (1 km southerly winds in excess of 70 kt from
   KTLH) and 0-1 km SRH approaching 600 m2/s2 that will easily support
   embedded QLCS circulations. Straight-line severe/damaging winds
   around 60-75 mph will also remain a threat with the line given the
   strength of the low-level flow.

   ..Gleason.. 01/09/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29718528 31998449 32288331 32058257 31408249 30198264
               29758290 29588342 29908397 29858433 29608471 29528499
               29598526 29718528 

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Page last modified: January 29, 2024
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