Mesoscale Discussion 0019
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0305 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast Texas...Southwest Louisiana

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 1...

   Valid 082105Z - 082200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1 continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms have developed along the warm
   front over southeast TX.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows the surface warm front
   now extends roughly from Trinity/Polk counties of southeast TX into
   Beauregard and Jefferson Davis Parishes of southwest LA.  Multiple
   small supercells storms have formed in vicinity of the front to the
   east of CLL, where there have been a few recent tornado reports.  It
   is unclear how much farther northeast these storms can remain
   surface-based, as they cross the warm front into a more stable
   low-level environment.  Other similar storms may form across WW #1
   through the early evening, given the very strong low-level shear
   profiles and favorable thermodynamics.

   To the southwest, strong storms have formed along the approaching
   cold front.  This activity will move into the HOU metro area in the
   next hour or two, with some tornado risk.  However, linear forcing
   mechanisms suggest hail/wind might be the primary threat.

   ..Hart.. 01/08/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   30179693 31249505 31259362 30639146 29399099 29149159
               29499328 29389475 29129612 28949706 29069752 29429750
               30179693