Mesoscale Discussion 0587
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0328 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

   Areas affected...far southeast NE...southwest into central
   IA...northwest MO...northeast KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 282028Z - 282300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk for a few
   tornadoes (a couple strong), large to very large hail (up to 3 inch
   diameter), and isolated damaging gusts through evening. A tornado
   watch will likely be needed for portions of the discussion area from
   central Iowa into northeast Kansas.

   DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus is noted along a dryline from eastern
   NE/northwest IA southward into northeast KS. An 18z RAOB from OAX
   indicated an EML around 700 mb, but only weak capping remained.
   Additional heating into the low/mid 80s F amid mid/upper 60s F
   dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 C/km 
   immediately downstream from the surface dryline is support strong
   instability with MLCAPE greater than 2000 J/kg noted in latest SPC
   Mesoanalysis and the 18z OAX RAOB. In addition to this this
   favorable thermodynamic environment, vertical shear is very
   favorable for supercell thunderstorms, as evident in enlarged,
   looping low-level hodographs becoming somewhat elongated above 2-3
   km. 

   Large-scale ascent will remain somewhat weaker with southward extent
   into the MO Valley vicinity, and storm coverage is a bit uncertain,
   especially with southward extent. Timing of convective initiation is
   also uncertain, but seems most likely in the 22-00z time frame.
   Regardless, any storms developing in this environment will likely
   have robust updrafts and become intense, posing a risk for very
   large hail, a few tornadoes and damaging gusts. A tornado watch will
   likely be needed for portions of the MCD area in the next 1-2 hours.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/28/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38269539 38139646 38329715 38529730 39859664 40239643
               40809631 41419618 41989598 42139573 42249507 42249396
               42229357 42119323 41839294 41459282 40929282 40489283
               39839318 39159389 38269539 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN