Mesoscale Discussion 0546
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0511 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

   Areas affected...Southwest KS into northwest OK

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170...

   Valid 242211Z - 242345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will continue into early evening,
   with a primary large hail, isolated strong to severe gusts, and
   possibly a tornado.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have developed late this afternoon from far
   northwest OK into southwest KS, in the vicinity of a northwest to
   southeast oriented surface confluence zone. Deep-layer flow is
   rather modest, with effective shear of less than 30 kt per objective
   mesoanalyses, but the presence of ongoing supercells suggests that
   shear is locally greater near the surface boundary. The
   thermodynamic environment is favorable for hail production, with
   relatively steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE near/above 1500
   J/kg. Locally strong to severe gusts will also be possible, given
   the presence of a relatively well-mixed boundary layer. A tornado
   cannot be ruled out, especially with any sustained supercell that
   persists into the evening, when a modest increase in low-level
   shear/SRH is expected across the region.

   ..Dean.. 04/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36599843 36559941 37000009 37180100 37170109 37450136
               37820130 38190113 38480077 38520041 38409970 37749853
               37709848 37409830 36849829 36599843 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN