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Mesoscale Discussion 532 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0532
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0530 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Areas affected...far southeast Colorado into much of western Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 163...
Valid 232230Z - 240000Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 163
continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 163. Large hail remain the primary immediate threat. However,
severe gusts may become a bigger concern later as storms merge. A
tornado remains possible.
DISCUSSION...Multiple supercell structures have developed across
portions of northwestern Kansas, some with a history of producing
hail over 2 inches in diameter, as well as occasional bouts of
low-level rotation. Given 8.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates and
locally stronger deep-layer shear preceding these supercell
structures, large hail (including 2+ inch stones) should remain the
primary hazard over the next couple of hours. However, these storms
are rapidly increasing in coverage and are showing signs of merging.
Should mergers occur, a cold-pool-driven MCS structure may
materialize with a severe gust threat and perhaps some lingering
concerns for hail. Several of these supercells will generate outflow
boundaries, and if a persistent updraft anchors to any of these
boundaries with unimpeded inflow, a tornado may also occur.
..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...
LAT...LON 37420322 38490231 39350144 39660045 39209994 38659979
37749996 37280037 37120112 37010164 37090269 37420322
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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