Mesoscale Discussion 0531
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0502 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Kansas into western Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 232202Z - 232330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Multiple storms, may continue to support occasional
   instances of severe wind or hail this evening. Since the severe
   threat will likely remain isolated, a WW issuance is not currently
   anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple multicells and transient supercells are in
   progress across northeastern Kansas, and are poised to keep tracking
   southeast amid an unstable airmass, characterized by over 2000 J/kg
   MLCAPE. Shear is weak, with 21Z mesoanalysis depicting less than 25
   kts of effective bulk shear, and TWX/EAX VADS showing short
   hodographs with little low-level structure. KTWX regional radar and
   MRMS mosaic radar imagery suggests that the strongest storms are
   upscale growing into a small MCS. If this morphology continues, a
   brief uptick in strong to potentially severe gusts will ensue.
   Otherwise, severe hail may accompany the stronger preceding cells
   that manage to intensify.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 04/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   39209645 39579607 39849527 39609416 39159372 38389394
               37949429 37869483 37899553 38089611 38269629 39209645 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN