Mesoscale Discussion 0526
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1154 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

   Areas affected...parts of cntrl and eastern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 231654Z - 231930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm activity may be accompanied by
   increasing potential to produce severe hail and locally damaging
   surface gusts, mainly toward 2-4 PM CDT and later this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Above a modestly moist boundary layer (characterized by
   mid/upper 50s F surface dew points), within broad surface troughing
   across the central and southern Great Plains, forecast soundings
   suggest that a subsidence induced warm/dry layer between 850-700 mb
   is still contributing to substantial inhibition across central into
   eastern Kansas.  However, thunderstorm activity has recently
   initiated in a small cluster north of Hutchinson.  

   Even if this activity is rooted close to the surface, and being
   forced through the capping layer, CAPE within/above the mixed-phase
   layer still appears modest, with weak shear beneath 10-15+ kt
   westerly 500 mb flow also likely to limit potential for large hail
   growth.  Latest objective analysis, though, does indicate a corridor
   of increasing boundary-layer destabilization, roughly along
   Interstate 70 near/east of Concordia, in response to continuing
   insolation and some further moistening aided by weak low-level
   convergence.

   As this boundary-layer destabilization progresses (and
   lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates become rather steep), weakening
   mid-level inhibition may allow for intensifying thunderstorm
   activity with increasing potential to produce severe hail and
   locally damaging wind gusts.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   39709815 39789622 39619499 38659484 38479620 37969696
               38129791 38999807 39709815 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN