Mesoscale Discussion 0515
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0214 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

   Areas affected...the South Carolina and North Carolina Piedmont

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221914Z - 222145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorm activity may continue to
   gradually develop and strengthen through 5-7 PM EDT, accompanied by
   at least some risk for marginally severe hail and potentially
   damaging surface gusts.  This may remain fairly localized and a
   severe weather watch is not anticipated, but trends will continue to
   be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorm development appears
   underway, perhaps supported by subtle mid-level cooling on the
   northwestern periphery of deep-layer ridging centered off the south
   Atlantic coast.  Based on forecast soundings, destabilization for a
   modestly moist and warming boundary layer remains inhibited by weak
   high-level lapse rates.  However, CAPE within the mixed-phase layer
   might still be sufficient to support small to marginally severe
   hail, aided by favorable shear beneath a 40 kt southwesterly jet
   streak around 500 mb.  

   Lower-level wind fields will remain more modest, but with at least
   some further boundary-layer destabilization through peak daytime
   heating, scattered thunderstorm activity will probably continue to
   intensify.  And downward mixing of momentum may lead to a few
   potentially damaging wind gusts, before storms weaken this evening.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/22/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   35098137 36287916 36537783 36447688 35667752 34977936
               34078076 34028224 35098137 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH