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Mesoscale Discussion 862 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0862
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Areas affected...parts of northeastern Colorado...northwestern
Kansas...southwestern Nebraska
Concerning...Tornado Watch 269...273...
Valid 210359Z - 210600Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 269, 273 continues.
SUMMARY...Supercells will continue to pose a risk for large hail,
locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two during the
couple of hours, before storms evolve into a more organized cluster
with potential for more widespread severe gusts perhaps occasionally
in excess of 75 mph as early as Midnight-2 AM CDT. Additional
severe weather watches will likely be needed downstream later
tonight.
DISCUSSION...Several sustained discrete supercells have evolved in a
developing cluster focused within strong warm advection centered
around the 700 mb level. This forcing is forecast to continue
slowly developing eastward across the western Kansas/Nebraska border
area through 05-07Z. Moistening easterly low-level flow beneath
this regime (including mid/upper 60s surface dew points advecting
across and east of the McCook NE/Hill City KS vicinities) will
continue to support increasingly unstable updraft inflow (including
CAPE possibly in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg). As this occurs,
substantive further upscale growth and organization seems likely in
the presence of strong deep-layer shear.
While storm motions are initially slow in the presence of modest
southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, which may have weakened some
this evening, convective evolution during the next few hours
probably will include the development of an increasingly
well-defined mesoscale convective vortex. Intensifying rear inflow
to the south and southeast of this feature is expected to eventually
contribute to a more rapid forward propagation and increasing
potential for severe surface gusts.
..Kerr.. 05/21/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 40780197 40910110 40900053 39990031 39820136 39690196
39450294 40160315 40780197
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