Mesoscale Discussion 0583
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0755 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast IA...Northwest IL

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 163...

   Valid 010055Z - 010230Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 163 continues.

   SUMMARY...Convection should gradually weaken as it spreads toward
   the Mississippi River Valley. New watch is not anticipated
   downstream.

   DISCUSSION...A few supercells linger across southern IA, along the
   southern fringe of large-scale support, in association with ejecting
   short-wave trough. Most notable, longer-lived supercell is
   propagating east across Appanoose County is approaching an air mass
   that is increasingly hostile to surface-based updrafts. While
   low-level lapse rates were steep at 00z/DVN, MLCAPE was only 40
   J/kg, and nocturnal cooling will limit further destabilization.
   While this lead storm may produce marginally severe hail, or perhaps
   a brief tornado over the next hour or so, current thinking is
   convection should gradually weaken as the evening progresses.

   ..Darrow.. 05/01/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...

   LAT...LON   41489297 41519118 40519098 40659329 41489297