Mesoscale Discussion 0554
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0915 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

   Areas affected...Middle Mississippi Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 280215Z - 280315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe risk will increase across central MO into central
   IL late this evening into the early-morning hours. Tornado Watch is
   warranted to account for this risk.

   DISCUSSION...Strong low-level warm advection is noted across MO late
   this evening as LLJ strengthens into this portion of the mid MS
   Valley. An elongated LEWP extends from southeast KS-western/northern
   MO-southeast IA. This MCS is gradually advancing east within a
   strongly sheared, and modestly unstable air mass. 00z soundings from
   SGF and ILX exhibited surface-6km bulk shear around 35kt, but 0-3
   SRH is quite strong at SGF, and should strengthen a bit over the
   next several hours. While the primary storm mode should remain a
   LEWP, some risk for QLCS tornadoes will exist, along with embedded
   supercells. New tornado watch will be issued given the current
   trends.

   ..Darrow/Smith.. 04/28/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   38359300 41109013 40568868 38579056 37629192 38359300