Mesoscale Discussion 0363
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0113 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024

   Areas affected...far southeast Alabama...southwest Georgia and the
   Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 030613Z - 030745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms may develop over
   parts of the Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia through the
   overnight hours. Watch issuance is uncertain and area will continue
   to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to
   lift northeast into portions of the MCD area through the remainder
   of the overnight hours. Strong vertical shear is in place across
   this region with regional VWP data indicating shear suitable for
   supercells. However, a 06z RAOB from TLH shows substantial capping
   near 700 mb. Forecast soundings suggest capping may erode
   sufficiently for surface-based storms late tonight into the early
   morning hours as large-scale ascent increases. However, weak
   instability and poor lapse rates may preclude a more robust severe
   threat. Trends will continue to be monitored for possible watch
   issuance.

   ..Leitman/Smith.. 04/03/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31578615 32008485 32008360 31908302 31278289 30758307
               29398429 29398536 29978639 30698634 31578615