Mesoscale Discussion 0328
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0553 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024

   Areas affected...much of central OK into northern TX

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 65...

   Valid 012253Z - 020030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 65 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 65. Very
   large (2-3 inch diameter) hail appears to be the main threat, though
   a few tornadoes remain possible with the more dominant supercells.

   DISCUSSION...Deep-layer ascent from the ejecting mid-level trough is
   overspreading the southern Plains, likely contributing to the recent
   uptick in convective coverage and intensity over southwestern into
   central OK. Despite persistent cloud cover and the presence of a
   broader rain shield overspreading western into central OK, adequate
   deep-layer shear and overall buoyancy will still support an
   appreciable severe threat into the evening. The 19Z OUN observed
   sounding showed 9 C/km mid-level lapse rates atop a capping
   inversion, which has been gradually eroding with time. Regional
   VADs, the 19Z observed sounding, and 22Z mesoanalysis, all depict
   elongated hodographs, with over 70 kts of effective bulk shear
   present. The very steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective
   bulk shear all suggest that large hail (some stones falling within
   the 2-3 inch diameter range) will be possible with any more
   persistent, mature supercells that can develop. Despite current
   meager low-level shear, an increase in low-level jet intensity may
   boost SRH later this evening, potentially accompanied by an
   increasing tornado threat, especially in eastern OK.

   ..Squitieri.. 04/01/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   33489943 35259875 36499796 36989612 36779515 36009509
               35079549 34059596 33599666 33059711 33079813 33129893
               33489943