Mesoscale Discussion 0204
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0920 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024

   Areas affected...East TX into central/southern LA and southwest MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 081520Z - 081715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Some uptick in severe potential is possible through the
   morning. Hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado or two will become
   possible with time. Eventual watch issuance is possible, though
   timing is uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Extensive convection is ongoing this morning from parts
   of east TX into LA. A convectively reinforced surface front is
   draped from northeast TX into northern LA and west-central MS. To
   the south of the front, rich low-level moisture is in place, with
   dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s F. Widespread cloudiness will
   tend to limit diurnal heating through the morning, but modestly
   steep midlevel lapse rates atop the moist boundary layer will
   support MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg through the morning, helping to
   maintain convection as it generally spreads eastward.

   Deep-layer shear is favorable for organized convection across the
   region, though storms may struggle to mature due to the lack of
   stronger heating and generally weak low-level lapse rates.
   Eventually, a couple supercells may become established from east TX
   into LA and perhaps southwest MS, posing a threat of hail and
   locally damaging gusts. If supercells can be sustained, a tornado or
   two will also be possible, especially from central/eastern LA into
   southwest MS, where some airmass recovery is expected in the wake of
   an earlier storm cluster, and 0-1 km SRH of 100-200 m2/s2 is
   expected to persist through much of the day. 

   Watch issuance will become possible if the threat for maturing
   supercells appears imminent, though the onset of a greater threat
   and potential watch timing remain uncertain.

   ..Dean/Smith.. 03/08/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   30909589 32129550 32229415 32179289 31939137 31629037
               31359017 30689035 30469123 30259235 30169287 30359446
               30469504 30689574 30909589