Mesoscale Discussion 0098
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0342 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024

   Areas affected...Southwestern Oklahoma into North Central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 022142Z - 030015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and gusty
   winds possible late afternoon/evening.

   DISCUSSION...The air mass across southwestern Oklahoma into north
   central Texas is slowly recovering after morning shower activity and
   cloud cover has diminished. This can be observed in surface
   temperatures warming into the upper 60s along with cu development
   along the southern fringe of the eroding mid-level capping
   inversion. Some stable air remains in place as observed by billow
   clouds across the Red River as of 21z. Further overspreading of
   ascent and cooler temperatures aloft should work to further diminish
   mid-level capping. MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg have nudged their
   way into portions north Central Texas just south of the Red River. 

   Storms have initiated to the southwest along and just behind the
   Pacific front slowly tracking eastward. Should this corridor
   continue to destabilize as deep layer shear increases into the
   evening, storms moving into this region could support a risk of
   large hail and damaging wind. This area will be monitored for trends
   and watch potential later this afternoon/evening.

   ..Thornton/Goss.. 02/02/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   34689887 34359866 33979860 33649863 33329913 32929969
               32909991 32890003 32990025 33060036 33210041 33780029
               34779987 34889961 34859922 34689887