Mesoscale Discussion 0052
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0614 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern AR...Northwest MS...Extreme southwest
   TN...Extreme northeast LA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 10...

   Valid 121214Z - 121345Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 10 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for 70-80 mph winds and a couple tornadoes will
   continue through sunrise.

   DISCUSSION...A fast-moving convective line has recently increased in
   organization across eastern AR, with several mesovortices noted
   along the leading edge of the line. Shortly after 1130 UTC, 64-kt
   and 63-kt gusts were noted at Pine Bluff (KPBF) and Stuttgart, AR
   (KSGT), respectively, as the line moved through those observing
   sites. Very strong low/midlevel flow in advance of a powerful
   shortwave trough moving across the southern Plains will continue to
   support severe-gust potential (with 65+ kt gusts possible) as this
   convective line moves quickly eastward toward northwest MS and
   extreme southwest TN. A couple brief line-embedded tornadoes will
   also be possible. The northward extent of the severe threat will be
   limited by increasingly cool/stable near-surface conditions, though
   some severe-gust potential could extend into regions were convection
   remains somewhat elevated.  

   In advance of the convective line described above, semi-discrete
   storms have intensified from northeast LA/southeast AR into
   northwest MS. It remains uncertain regarding whether supercells can
   mature within the weakly unstable and strongly sheared environment
   across this region, but very strong low-level shear/SRH (as noted on
   regional VWPs) will support a conditional tornado risk with any
   sustained supercell ahead of the primary convective line this
   morning.

   ..Dean.. 01/12/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   35409093 35459031 35399001 35038985 34458984 33938989
               32779082 32609111 32609161 32619201 32789212 33029209
               33169200 33349191 33509187 33879165 34379143 35409093