Mesoscale Discussion 0011
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0527 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast CO...Raton Mesa of northeast NM...far
   western KS

   Concerning...Blizzard 

   Valid 081127Z - 081730Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour are expected
   to begin between 13-15 UTC on a localized basis.  Surface gusts will
   rapidly increase this morning (into the 35-60 mph range) and
   coincide with more widespread 1 inch per hour snowfall rates.  These
   conditions will lead to substantially reduced visibilities and
   result in blizzard conditions beginning during the late morning
   (15-18 UTC).

   DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery shows a powerful mid-level
   shortwave trough moving east across the Sangre de Cristos early this
   morning.  Deep-layer forcing for ascent will continue to overspread
   the central High Plains as the column saturates early this morning. 
   Light to moderate snow will transition to localized heavy snow
   (i.e., rates around 1 inch per hour) beginning in the 13-15 UTC
   period according to the latest SREF and HREF model guidance.  Heavy
   snowfall rates of around 1 inch per hour will become widespread
   during the 15-18 UTC period as both upslope flow strengthens south
   of the Arkansas River and deep-layer ascent associated with the
   cyclone intensifies.

   Low-level flow is forecast to intensify markedly during the morning
   with 250 m AGL flow increasing from less than 10 kt to 50 kt while
   contributing to very strong gusts and substantially reduced
   visibilities.  The strengthening of surface gusts into the 35-60 mph
   range is expected to coincide with the onset of more widespread 1
   inch per hour snowfall rates and result in blizzard conditions
   during the 15-18 UTC period.

   ..Smith.. 01/08/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   38710125 38340135 37440205 37040272 36740375 36740440
               36970460 37230463 37630451 37800420 37730384 37760298
               38130244 38770186 38970153 38880133 38710125