ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 170515 
SPC MCD 170515 
FLZ000-170615-

Mesoscale Discussion 2332
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2023

Areas affected...West-Central Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 170515Z - 170615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few low-topped supercells will affect the offshore
waters and coastal areas of the Tampa Bay region.  The strongest
cells are expected to remain offshore, but conditions are being
monitored.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar/satellite imagery shows a couple of
low-topped rotating storms approx. 20-30 miles offshore to the
southwest of Tampa.  These storms are just east of a well-defined
MCV/vorticity max, and roughly along a surface warm front that
extends from Tampa Bay eastward across the central FL Peninsula. 
VAD profiles show very large low-level vertical shear, with 1km AGL
winds exceeding 50 knots, and 0-3km SRH values over 500 m2/s2. 
Forecast soundings show very weak CAPE, but dewpoints near 70f
suggest the potential for surface-based updrafts.  If one of these
cells can be sustained as it moves ashore, there is a chance of a
damaging wind gust or brief tornado.  The threat area and overall
risk remains rather marginal at this time, but is being closely
monitored for a possible tornado watch if trends increase.

..Hart/Smith.. 12/17/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...

LAT...LON   28278385 28228267 27698204 26868233 26968306 27478363
            28278385 

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