ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101736 
SPC MCD 101736 
NCZ000-VAZ000-101930-

Mesoscale Discussion 2325
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Areas affected...Portions of central North Carolina into far
south-central Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 101736Z - 101930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Severe risk is evolving over portions of central North
Carolina into far south-central Virginia this afternoon. Brief
tornadoes and/or damaging gusts are the main concern.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of storms has been evolving
northward along a weak north/south-oriented baroclinic zone draped
across parts of central NC during the last couple hours. This storm
cluster has shown signs of transient midlevel updraft
rotation/supercell characteristics, and recent low-level updraft
intensification. While instability is fairly limited, continued
warming/moistening of the inflow for this activity is expected
during the next few hours. Additionally, the RAX VWP depicts strong
low-level shear, characterized by 30 kt of 0-1 km bulk shear and
ample streamwise vorticity for an east-northeastward-moving storm.
Low-level shear will also continue strengthening amid a
strengthening low-level jet. While the tornado risk may remain
localized (especially near the baroclinic zone) in the short-term,
the tornado/damaging wind risk should increase across the area with
time. 

Farther east toward the coast, the severe risk should also gradually
increase with time this afternoon, and this area is being monitored
as well.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 12/10/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   35387997 35697973 36037924 36477871 36637840 36657809
            36637787 36587750 36337729 35977729 35567750 35227804
            34937866 34927922 35127982 35387997 

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