ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 020921 
SPC MCD 020921 
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-021115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2301
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023

Areas affected...southeastern Louisiana...southern
Mississippi...southwestern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 713...

Valid 020921Z - 021115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 713 continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm activity will continue across the
region into and beyond daybreak.  While the risk for severe weather
may not be completely negligible, it appears low enough that a new
severe weather watch will not be needed, at least in the near term.

DISCUSSION...Downstream of mid-level troughing still progressing
across the southern Rockies, and on the northern periphery of
mid-level subtropical ridging centered over the Caribbean, scattered
thunderstorm activity continues to slowly develop east-northeastward
near and across coastal areas from southern Louisiana into the
western Florida Panhandle.  This appears supported by forcing for
ascent driven by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, beneath
broadly difluent upper flow, with convection generally rooted above
near-surface lapse rates ranging from stable to perhaps approaching
moist adiabatic.  

Modest mid-level lapse rates may be allowing for most unstable CAPE
ranging from 500-1000 J/kg, in the presence of wind fields/shear
potentially supportive of supercells.  However, with little change
in the near-surface thermodynamic profiles forecast through at least
mid-morning, an appreciable increase in severe thunderstorm
potential across and inland of coastal areas appears unlikely
anytime soon.

..Kerr.. 12/02/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   30229182 31238943 30898788 30948601 30128556 29418623
            28978764 29418924 29239100 29349241 30229182 

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