Mesoscale Discussion 2257
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1006 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

   Areas affected...Portions of far northern IA...southern MN...and WI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241506Z - 241730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Mainly elevated thunderstorms should pose an isolated hail
   threat over the next few hours. Watch issuance is unlikely this
   morning.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from
   parts of far southwestern MN into WI. This convection is largely
   related to ascent associated with a west-southwesterly low-level
   jet, and modest divergence attendant to an upper-level jet extending
   across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. A surface front
   also extends from far northern IA/southern MN into WI. These
   thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain slightly elevated to
   the cool side of the surface front. Still, steep mid-level lapse
   rates noted on the 12Z MPX sounding (around 7.7 C/km in the 700-500
   mb layer) are supporting MUCAPE of 1000-1700 J/kg along/north of the
   front. Modest low-level west-southwesterlies quickly strengthen with
   height through mid/upper levels based on recent VWPs from area
   radars. Corresponding 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear and
   elongated, nearly straight hodographs above 3 km AGL should support
   updraft organization, including the potential for a supercell or
   two. Isolated severe hail generally up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter
   will be possible with the more robust cores as this activity spreads
   east-northeastward over the next couple of hours. The potential for
   strong/gusty winds is less clear, as poor low-level lapse rates and
   generally elevated convection may tend to limit downdrafts from
   reaching the surface.

   ..Gleason/Guyer.. 10/24/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   43429120 43269323 43229490 43319572 43679587 44269496
               44689348 44959187 45119098 45319012 45458970 45438879
               45078763 44838728 44358751 44268828 44148935 43429120