ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 050604 
SPC MCD 050604 
LAZ000-TXZ000-050700-

Mesoscale Discussion 2237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Thu Oct 05 2023

Areas affected...East central/northeast TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 706...

Valid 050604Z - 050700Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 706
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/damaging gusts will be possible through
about 08z, but an additional watch is likely not needed.

DISCUSSION...A well-developed squall line continues to move
southeastward across northeast and east-central Texas, within the
remaining southeastern counties of WW #706.  Gusts of 50-56 kt have
been measured from Corsicana to Tyler with an embedded bowing
segment in the squall line, and there will be a continued potential
for an additional severe gust or two (or wind damage) with this
segment of the line prior to reaching the Sabine River.  Thereafter,
the convection will exit the richer low-level moisture and
associated larger buoyancy, and storms are expected to weaken. 
Farther southwest, the orientation of the line suggests that the
stronger updrafts will tend to slightly lag the primary gust front,
and any wind-damage potential is expected to remain
isolated/marginal.  Overall, the observed trends in the convection
and the evolution of the mesoscale environment suggest that the
severe threat will slowly diminish through the overnight hours, and
that an additional watch does not appear to be necessary.

..Thompson.. 10/05/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   30819579 30639644 30749702 30949702 31309647 31669576
            32179518 32519495 32749446 32659414 32359388 31919398
            31399454 30819579 

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