ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 030119 
SPC MCD 030119 
TXZ000-NMZ000-030215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2215
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0819 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern NM into the western TX
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696...

Valid 030119Z - 030215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696
continues.

SUMMARY...An organized line of storms over eastern NM may persist
beyond 02z and move into parts of TX. Damaging gust potential may
warrant a new watch or replacement of parts of WW696.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing severe storms over eastern NM have slowly grown
upscale this evening into a more solid convective line. This line
has intensified with the development of the low-level jet and may
continue to pose a risk for damaging gusts beyond 02z across far
eastern NM and possibly into parts of the western TX Panhandle. The
air mass ahead of this line of storms is relatively undisturbed with
approximately 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 30-40 kt of bulk shear
supporting organized storms. With WW696 scheduled to expire at 02z,
confidence (bolstered by recent HRRR runs) is increasing that the
severe threat will persist beyond that time. A replacement of
portions of WW696 or a new watch will likely be needed this evening.

..Lyons/Edwards.. 10/03/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35900436 36220390 36240347 36170309 36000238 35900208
            35650189 35330183 35110188 34950197 34790261 34770316
            34810411 34970467 35900436 

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