ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 232039 
SPC MCD 232039 
MNZ000-IAZ000-232215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2185
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Areas affected...Central/northeast IA into southeast MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 691...

Valid 232039Z - 232215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 691
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for locally damaging wind may persist with an
ongoing storm cluster late this afternoon. Additional development
remains possible by early evening into parts of southern IA.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived bowing storm cluster is currently
approaching northeast IA and southeast MN. While this system remains
relatively well organized with a moderately strong surface cold
pool, recent observed wind gusts have been subsevere. However, with
some modest heating/destabilization noted downstream into northeast
IA and far southeast MN, some damaging-wind threat may still evolve
as this cluster moves northeastward late this afternoon. While this
cluster will eventually move out of WW 691, the need for additional
downstream watch issuance is uncertain, and will depend on
short-term trends regarding the intensity and organization of this
cluster. 

Farther south, some clearing and diurnal heating is underway across
south-central IA, though MLCINH remains substantial (per recent
objective mesoanalyses). Depending on the extent of additional
heating/destabilization late this afternoon, additional isolated
storm development cannot be ruled out through early evening, with
wind profiles (as noted on the KDMX VWP) remaining conditionally
favorable for organized convection.

..Dean/Guyer.. 09/23/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   43539380 43949242 43919172 43549159 43109172 42329212
            42149222 41779241 41499270 41349301 41219357 41299398
            41529433 42839359 43539380 

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