ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 161930 
SPC MCD 161930 
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-162130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2158
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

Areas affected...Far southeast Nebraska...Northeast
Kansas...portions of western Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 161930Z - 162130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few marginal supercells storms  may produce large hail
and isolated strong/severe wind gusts this afternoon. A watch is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...A compact shortwave trough is evident on water vapor
imagery now entering the Coulee Region in west-central Wisconsin. A
broader trough extends southwest into the central Plains. Modest
forcing along a weak surface boundary in conjunction with the
mid-level trough has helped initiate what has so far been isolated
convection in southeastern Nebraska. Shear in parts of the Missouri
Valley is maximized as the mid-level jet is moving through the
region. While moisture is not overly rich (dewpoints in the upper
50s to low 60s) temperatures aloft are cold enough (-16 C on OAX 12Z
observed sounding) to support modest (around 1000 J/kg) MLCAPE.
Through the remainder of the afternoon, widely scattered storms will
continue to develop and pose a risk for large hail (1-1.5 in.) and
isolated strong to severe wind gusts. With modest buoyancy and
forcing, the severe threat is expected to remain marginal.

..Wendt/Hart.. 09/16/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   40509532 39909459 38629430 38159442 38029515 38089613
            38299664 38759745 39099781 40029813 40399761 40559610
            40509532 

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