ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 131402 
SPC MCD 131402 
NMZ000-AZZ000-131600-

Mesoscale Discussion 2144
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0902 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023

Areas affected...parts of central and southern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 131402Z - 131600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Risk for marginal hail and gusty winds will continue with
developing storms across parts of central and southern Arizona. 
Limited/marginal nature of this risk should preclude the need for WW
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows scattered thunderstorm
development ongoing across parts of the central and southern
Arizona, ahead of a weak cyclonic disturbance aloft crossing the
Lower Colorado Valley at this time, per WV imagery.  Relatively cool
air aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates are contributing to modest
CAPE this morning, atop the still-stable boundary layer.  With 30 kt
mid-level westerlies (per PHX 12Z RAOB) the resulting 25 kt of cloud
base to 500 mb shear will remain sufficient for rather vigorous
updrafts locally.  Hail around an inch in diameter will be possible
with the strongest cells.  Given the isolated and marginal nature of
the risk, WW issuance is not anticipated.

..Goss/Guyer.. 09/13/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON   34221356 34491336 34411218 33741065 33000918 32090900
            32041008 32811156 33401351 33801371 34221356 

NNNN