ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 072031 
SPC MCD 072031 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-072230-

Mesoscale Discussion 2097
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CDT Thu Sep 07 2023

Areas affected...northern LA...southern MS...far southern AR...and
far southwestern AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 072031Z - 072230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few more damaging gusts may occur this afternoon across
parts of northeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, far southern
Arkansas, and far southwest Alabama. A watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms is currently moving out of
southeastern Arkansas into northeastern Louisiana, and more storms
have developed nearby along the surface convergence line across
northeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. These storms are
situated at the leading edge of a northerly upper-level jet
according to water vapor imagery and Mesoanalysis products. Near the
convergence line, temperatures have warmed into the mid-upper 90s,
with dewpoints near 70F, yielding moderate MLCAPE values of
2000-2500 J/kg and precipitable water values near 1.8", which is
near the mean for the region and time of year. Given the moist
troposphere, some potential exists for damaging gusts from
water-loaded downdrafts, and in fact, there was a 51 kt gust at 2001
UTC at KBIX. In addition, the modest deep-layer shear may promote
clustering, and the clusters would be preferred locations for wind
damage. The storms are expected to drift southward though the
afternoon and wane shortly after sunset.

..Supinie/Kerr.. 09/07/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   33029309 33159253 33239214 32409067 31698936 31078827
            30948821 30578815 29858857 29848934 30059068 30459230
            31079335 31909368 32609351 33029309 

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