ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 251831 SPC MCD 251831 WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-252030- Mesoscale Discussion 2045 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023 Areas affected...Southern OH...Eastern KY...Western WV/VA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251831Z - 252030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms may increase through the afternoon, with a primary threat of damaging wind. DISCUSSION...To the west of a long-lived storm cluster across southwest WV, storms have recently intensified along two east-west oriented bands across northern KY, with additional building cumulus noted closer to the primary cold front across southern OH. Strong heating of a richly moist low-level environment has resulted in strong buoyancy, with MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg along/south of the cold front and west of the outflow across western WV. Additional storm development will be possible through the afternoon, including across parts of southeast OH into western WV within the modifying outflow later this afternoon. Evolution of convection remains uncertain through the afternoon, within a strongly unstable but somewhat weakly forced environment. Strong buoyancy and large PW will support a wet microburst threat through the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is modest at best, but 25-35 kt west-northwesterly flow in the 2-4 km layer (as noted in regional VWPs) may aid in the development of one or more outflow-driven clusters with time, potentially resulting in a somewhat greater coverage of wind-damage potential. At this time, the threat appears too marginal/isolated for watch issuance, though trends will be monitored for any more notable clustering/upscale growth with time. ..Dean/Thompson.. 08/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK... LAT...LON 36708228 36998486 37548519 38068525 39328471 39338429 39498282 39518203 39268145 39148137 38158115 37088130 36708228 NNNN