Mesoscale Discussion 2038
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0341 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023

   Areas affected...The western Dakotas into northwest Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 242041Z - 242245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop through the
   late afternoon and into the early evening. Thunderstorm coverage
   will likely remain too limited to warrant watch issuance, but strong
   to severe winds and large hail are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery shows gradually deepening
   cumulus along a surface trough from southwest ND into western
   NE/southeast WY. Parts of this region - mainly the SD/NE border area
   - have been slow to destabilize due to residual cloud cover, but
   MLCIN has been steadily diminishing amid boundary-layer warming as
   temperatures climb into the upper 80s and low 90s. Recent forecast
   soundings suggest temperatures in the low 90s are required to
   completely remove mixed-layer inhibition, which is slowly ongoing
   per recent surface observations. Consequently, thermodynamic
   profiles should steadily become more favorable for initiation and
   maintenance of convection over the next couple of hours. 

   Forcing for ascent over the region is expected to remain fairly
   modest as the main synoptic trough passes to the north along the
   international border. This will likely limit storm coverage and
   maintain an fairly isolated severe threat, and storm motions off the
   surface trough will favor more initially discrete storm modes. 30-40
   knot mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the upper wave will
   support effective bulk shear values near 35 knots, favorable for
   supercells with an attendant severe wind/hail risk. More deeply
   mixed low-level profiles across southwest SD into NE will likely
   support accelerating downdrafts via evaporative cooling processes.
   In turn, this may support a locally-higher potential for strong to
   severe gusts. Regardless, given the expected limited coverage of
   storms, watch issuance is not anticipated.

   ..Moore/Grams.. 08/24/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   43560378 45000355 46110332 46640274 46620139 45900099
               44550128 43150162 41790267 41770316 42020365 42220427
               42620450 43560378