ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 221840 SPC MCD 221840 COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-AZZ000-222045- Mesoscale Discussion 2025 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Areas affected...Utah into southwest Wyoming Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221840Z - 222045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk of strong to severe winds through the late afternoon and early evening hours. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, occasional lightning flashes have been observed from a few deepening cumulus towers within a differential heating boundary draped from northern AZ into southwest WY. This is amid gradual diurnal destabilization with MUCAPE values approaching 500 J/kg across the region. Further heating/destabilization is expected through the remainder of the afternoon with model consensus suggesting MUCAPE upwards of 1000 J/kg likely by peak heating, despite only modest mid-level lapse rates. While synoptic-scale ascent remains limited, orographic lift within the differential heating zone should support an increasing number of thunderstorms in the coming hours. Recent VWP observations from KICX and KMTX are sampling 40-50 knot winds between 7-8 kft AGL, which should be just above the LCL of most parcels emanating from a well-mixed boundary layer. The downward mixing of these winds, combined with downdraft accelerations related to evaporative cooling, will support the potential for strong to severe wind gusts. However, this will likely be conditional on storms developing and/or migrating into a deeply mixed environment. Latest dewpoint depressions and forecast soundings suggest most areas are not yet sufficiently mixed, but should become so in the coming hours. Furthermore, effective shear over the region near 35-40 knots may support transient supercell characteristics with the strongest cells. Consequently, the potential for strong/severe winds should increase through the coming hours, but will likely remain fairly limited in coverage. ..Moore/Grams.. 08/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...FGZ...SLC...VEF... LAT...LON 36621158 36621207 36961266 37521285 37861278 40491194 41171169 41861116 42011010 41810937 41480888 41130876 39220953 37431009 36811067 36621158 NNNN