ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 141807 
SPC MCD 141807 
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-142030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1993
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023

Areas affected...Upstate of SC...western NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 141807Z - 142030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered damaging gusts (peak speeds
45-60 mph) are possible mainly during the 3pm-7pm period.  It is
uncertain how storms will evolve but a few small thunderstorm
clusters will seemingly develop.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite/radar mosaic imagery shows towering
cumulus and initial thunderstorms are developing over the Smoky
Mountains.  Temperatures immediately east of the mountains have
warmed into the lower 90s over the Upstate of SC and areas northeast
along the I-85 corridor.  Surface dewpoints are in the lower 70s and
the low-level moisture is contributing to PW around 2 inches. 
Although generally weak westerly flow is remotely sampled by the
KGSP VAD and depicted in the latest model forecast soundings, the
20-kt mean westerly flow will aid in storms developing east off the
higher terrain into the adjacent valleys/piedmont.  With surface
temperatures in the lower 90s, 0-3 km lapse rates will become
adequately steep (8 deg C/km) and potentially support strong to
locally severe water-loaded downbursts.  The localized nature of the
downburst risk and the uncertainty of the evolution/overall strength
of the small thunderstorm clusters results in uncertainty about the
need for a small severe thunderstorm watch.  Convective trends will
be monitored.

..Smith/Hart.. 08/14/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   36238099 35938210 35318325 34978351 34678341 34538295
            34448252 35388052 35668026 35968024 36158037 36238099 

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