ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102038 
SPC MCD 102038 
MSZ000-ARZ000-102245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1934
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

Areas affected...eastern AR...northern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 102038Z - 102245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Additional storm development is possible.  An isolated
severe hail/wind threat may develop.

DISCUSSION...Radar/visible satellite composite shows a thunderstorm 
over eastern AR with an increasingly optically deep stratocumulus
field over northern MS.  Water-vapor imagery shows a weak mid-level
perturbation moving east across eastern AR this afternoon.  Surface
temperatures across northern MS into far eastern AR range from the
lower 80s south to the lower 90s on the southern periphery of a
residual baroclinic zone.  Objective analysis indicates a very
unstable airmass resides over the northern MS/southeast AR vicinity
(MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/kg).  Effective shear due largely in part to
large veering of flow with height will aid in some multicell
organization.  A few stronger storms may develop and pose a risk for
isolated marginally severe hail/damaging gusts through early
evening.  The expected coverage/magnitude of the severe threat will
probably preclude a severe thunderstorm watch.  However, will
monitor convective trends for a low possibility the severe threat is
more organized than anticipated, perhaps prompting a small severe
thunderstorm watch.

..Smith/Guyer.. 08/10/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   34599144 34759097 34348921 33968914 33668930 33568984
            33999146 34359159 34599144 

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