ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101834 
SPC MCD 101834 
NJZ000-PAZ000-102030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1932
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

Areas affected...southern and central parts of NJ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 101834Z - 102030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A localized threat for a weak supercell or two and their
associated hazards will move from west to east across south-central
NJ through 430 pm EDT.

DISCUSSION...A couple of weak supercells have persisted within a
moist/weak unstable airmass across the Mid-Atlantic states early
this afternoon.  The KDIX VAD has shown a slight intensification of
flow in the 5-6 km AGL layer in the past hour (+ 5 to 10 kt). 
Additionally, the low-level hodograph is adequately enlarged to
support at least episodic low-level rotation.  The primary hindrance
for a more appreciable severe storm risk continues to be a nearly
saturated/poor lapse rate environment in the 3-km to storm top
layer.  Nonetheless, the upper 70s temperatures and lower 70s
dewpoints at the surface are contributing to weak buoyancy and a
CAPE profile with characteristics of a tropical cyclone environment
undergoing a tropical to extratropical transition.  As a result, a
conditional risk for a brief tornado and/or wind damage will exist
with any robust updraft before moving east of the NJ coast in a
couple of hours.

..Smith/Guyer.. 08/10/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...

LAT...LON   39977508 40247404 39857407 39587425 39467478 39567523
            39977508 

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