ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 071218 
SPC MCD 071218 
PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-071415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1876
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0718 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023

Areas affected...Northeast Tennessee...Northwest North
Carolina...Western Virginia...South/East West Virginia...Maryland
and Southern Pennsylvania

Concerning...Outlook upgrade 

Valid 071218Z - 071415Z

SUMMARY...An upgrade to Moderate Risk will take place at the 13Z Day
1 Outlook update. The Moderate Risk will include areas in northeast
Tennessee, northwest North Carolina, western Virginia,
southern/eastern West Virginia, Maryland and southern Pennsylvania.
Widespread damaging winds are expected, with localized gusts above
65 knots possible.

DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough will move through the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys today, with a moist airmass ahead of the system
becoming moderately unstable. Thunderstorms will develop by late
morning along a surface trough associated with the upper-level
system. Supercell development will be likely around midday with a
few tornadoes possible. A transition to a squall line is expected to
take place during the afternoon. This squall line will move quickly
eastward across the southern and central Appalachians. Widespread
damaging winds are expected along the leading edge of the squall
line, with localized gusts above 65 knots possible.

..Broyles/Grams.. 08/07/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...
MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   36048135 35978240 35998284 36048323 36118359 36218382
            36308389 36478394 36708388 37168342 37838252 39307916
            40027763 40157677 40077628 39817597 39427605 38797655
            37527837 36607975 36048135 

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