ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 042004 
SPC MCD 042004 
MOZ000-KSZ000-042230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1832
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023

Areas affected...portions of northern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 042004Z - 042230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is gradually increasing across portions
of northern MO. Damaging gusts are the main threat though a tornado
or two, as well as an instance of large hail, are also possible.
Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...The remnants of an MCV continue to track eastward along
the northeast KS/northwest MO border area, with clearing skies and
backed surface winds preceding the MCV. Surface temperatures are
rising into the low to mid 80s amid mid to upper 70s F dewpoints,
contributing to 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE amid eroding MLCINH. With
continued heating and further destabilization, an eventual increase
in convective coverage and intensity should take place across
northern MO this afternoon. 19Z mesoanalysis/1936Z EAX VAD profile
shows elongated low-level hodographs, with the latest mesoanalysis
also showing modest 0-3 km CAPE and vertical near-surface vorticity
overlapping near the MCV center. As such, storms that manage to
organize this afternoon should mature into multicells or perhaps
supercells capable of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two,
along with an instance of large hail.

Given the slower trends in increasing storm coverage and intensity,
the timing for the need of a WW issuance remains uncertain. However,
a WW issuance may ultimately be needed this afternoon, whenever a
appreciable increase in convective trends is noted.

..Squitieri/Goss.. 08/04/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...

LAT...LON   39289513 39909482 40119434 40229340 40129268 39749218
            39319226 39029267 38879330 38909394 38959464 39059498
            39289513 

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