ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 292220 
SPC MCD 292220 
NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-292345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1779
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Virginia into the Delmarva and southern New
Jersey

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 571...

Valid 292220Z - 292345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 571
continues.

SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat continues across eastern Virginia
into the Delmarva and southern New Jersey.

DISCUSSION...Storms developed across northern Virginia and central
Maryland late this afternoon and quickly organized into a forward
propagating squall line with numerous measured severe wind gusts
over the past 1 to 2 hours. This line of storms has started to
weaken with significant reduction in 9km MRMS CAPPI over the past
hour. However, there is enough organization with this line of storms
for continued damaging wind gusts and occasional severe wind gusts
to the Atlantic Coast from southern New Jersey to southern Delaware.

Farther southwest, additional convection has started to form along
the front from near Blacksburg, Virginia to northeast Virginia.
These storms are south of the better mid-level flow (~20 knots per
RNK VWP vs 35-40 knots per LWX VWP) and therefore, storm
organization may be a bit more transient. Nonetheless, significant
instability (2000 to 2500 J/kg) and decent convergence along the
cold front should be sufficient for a damaging wind threat as these
storms move east through the evening.

..Bentley.. 07/29/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   36628027 37227939 38357757 38777690 39077626 39527558
            39807517 39767468 39487429 39017432 38307472 37417545
            37117597 37017635 36727714 36628027 

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