ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 262131 
SPC MCD 262131 
SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-262300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1731
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0431 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023

Areas affected...portions of central North Dakota...South
Dakota...and Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 262131Z - 262300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A risk for isolated severe gusts/hail exists this
afternoon with the stronger storms that can sustain themselves. A WW
issuance is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating and broad surface lee
troughing is supporting the development of isolated, high-based
supercells across the northern Plains. 100 F surface temperatures
amid low 50s-60s F dewpoints (40-50 F T/Td spreads) preceding the
supercells are contributing to 9+ C/km boundary-layer lapse rates.
While 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates and 40+ kts of effective bulk
shear (driven by elongated hodographs) suggest that mid-level
updraft rotation and hail potential exists, the deep and hot
boundary layer may promote sufficient melting of hail as well as
evaporation of rain to support a severe gust threat through the
remainder of the afternoon. Given the isolated nature of the storms
and their severe threat, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not
currently expected.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 07/26/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...BIS...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   40540075 44300160 46410163 47560055 47700001 47279933
            46529886 45329848 43919845 42499860 41539886 40889919
            40429954 40540075 

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