Mesoscale Discussion 1676
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0106 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

   Areas affected...portions of central/southern LA into far southern
   MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 221806Z - 221930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to gradually increase
   over the next 1-2 hours. Locally strong gusts will be possible
   through early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Strong heating and surface dewpoints in the low/mid 70s
   F have contributed to MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg across the region
   this afternoon. Thunderstorms are increasing to the southwest of a
   severe warned cluster over southern MS along a southward-sagging
   surface front. Visible satellite imagery has shown
   increasing/deepening cumulus near the surface boundary over the past
   couple of hours, and additional thunderstorm development is expected
   in the next 1-2 hours. Vertical shear is weaker compared to further
   east across WW 539. However, given moderate/strong instability, high
   PW values (near 2 inches), and steep low-level lapse rates near 8
   C/km, sporadic wet microbursts are possible. If sufficient
   clustering/outflow consolidation occurs, damaging wind potential
   could increase with any forward-propagating clusters that develop.
   Convective trends will be monitored, and a severe thunderstorm watch
   could be issued at some point this afternoon if organized clusters
   develop.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 07/22/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   31259333 31419088 31298968 30818945 30378951 29998958
               29888993 29789039 29809131 30039246 30849349 30879345
               31259333