ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 192021 
SPC MCD 192021 
UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-192245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1632
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Nevada and western UT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 192021Z - 192245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will gradually increase through the
afternoon. Strong to severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms.
A watch is not currently expected.

DISCUSSION...A vorticity maximum embedded in a belt of moderate
west-southwesterly midlevel flow (evident in water vapor imagery)
will continue east-northeastward across eastern Nevada and western
UT this afternoon into early evening. As DCVA preceding this feature
overspreads a diurnally destabilizing air mass, thunderstorm
coverage will gradually increase during the next few hours as
boundary-layer inhibition continues to erode. While modest
deep-layer shear (20-30 kt of effective shear) may limit convective
organization to an extent, at least loosely organized updrafts
embedded in larger clusters of eastward-moving storms will be
possible. This, combined with the diurnally deepening boundary layer
and steepening low-level lapse rates (characterized by inverted-V
thermodynamic profiles) will support strong to severe outflow winds
-- especially with any loosely organized clusters.

..Weinman/Hart.. 07/19/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...VEF...LKN...

LAT...LON   41841428 41991358 41991292 41891222 41501168 41011154
            40591148 39261186 38641232 38241280 38191335 38191395
            38251503 38481545 38661570 39001577 39571572 40011559
            40991505 41481472 41841428 

NNNN