ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 172043 
SPC MCD 172043 
OKZ000-KSZ000-172145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1601
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Areas affected...Portions of south-central KS into north-central OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon 

Valid 172043Z - 172145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Intense supercell development is ongoing with a very large
hail threat. New watch issuance will be issued soon.

DISCUSSION...The cap has been breached across south-central KS, with
explosive development recently noted with a supercell in
south-central KS. An extremely unstable airmass is present in a
narrow corridor along/west of outflow from prior convection across
southeastern KS. With 4000-5000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 50+ kt of
deep-layer shear, any supercell which can be sustained will pose a
threat for very large hail of 2-3+ inches in diameter along with
severe/damaging outflow winds. Although the number of supercells
which will develop remains uncertain, the very favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic environment, along with ongoing intense
convective development, will require new Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance soon.

..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/17/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   38259946 38309758 36079714 35939827 37289900 38259946 

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