ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 171654 
SPC MCD 171654 
OKZ000-KSZ000-171830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1594
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern KS into northeastern OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 503...

Valid 171654Z - 171830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 503
continues.

SUMMARY...The greatest threat for very large hail (2+ inches in
diameter) and severe wind gusts to around 70 mph will shift from
parts of far southeastern Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma over the
next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A small but intense thunderstorm cluster, with an
embedded supercell on its southwest flank, persists over far
southeastern KS as of 1650Z. A measured wind gust to 69 mph and
multiple severe hail reports have been received with this cluster.
Current expectations are for these thunderstorms to maintain their
intensity as they move southeastward into parts of northeastern OK
over the next couple of hours. A very moist airmass characterized by
at least mid 70s surface dewpoints, coupled with steep mid-level
lapse rates noted on the 12Z OUN sounding and ample daytime heating,
are supporting a reservoir of strong instability. Even though some
MLCIN remains apparent in latest mesoanalysis estimates, the strong
downdrafts associated with the well-organized cluster will likely
allow for 60-70+ mph severe winds to reach the surface. Isolated
very large hail will also remain a concern with the embedded
supercell in the short term given the presence of steep mid-level
lapse rates and around 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear. Based on its
current motion, this cluster should approach the Tulsa metro by
around 1 PM CDT.

..Gleason.. 07/17/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37259683 37419587 36889541 35749543 35599607 36179687
            37259683 

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