ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 162033 
SPC MCD 162033 
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-162200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1581
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Areas affected...Portions of northern/eastern LA...far southern
AR...and southwestern MS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498...

Valid 162033Z - 162200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe/damaging wind threat continues with
thunderstorms moving east-southeastward. Downstream watch issuance
is possible.

DISCUSSION...Multiple measured severe wind gusts and associated
damage have been noted with a cluster of thunderstorms as they
advanced eastward across northwestern into north-central LA and far
southern AR. Very strong instability is present downstream of this
activity across eastern LA into parts of southern MS, with MLCAPE
generally ranging from 3000-4000 J/kg. Even though deep-layer shear
remains weak, the rather favorable thermodynamic environment will
likely support a continued threat for scattered severe/damaging
winds as the cluster moves east-southeastward along/south of an
instability gradient. Given this expectation and ongoing
organization of the cluster, with additional updrafts forming on its
southwestern flank/outflow, downstream watch issuance into more of
eastern LA and southwestern MS is being considered.

..Gleason.. 07/16/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   33449317 33249196 32829097 32199048 31529016 31079061
            31079168 31449306 31929401 32349335 32719324 33209345
            33449317 

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