ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 161440 
SPC MCD 161440 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-161615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1574
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0940 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Areas affected...Portions of New England

Concerning...Tornado Watch 497...

Valid 161440Z - 161615Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 497 continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for isolated damaging winds and a brief
tornado should continue this morning.

DISCUSSION...Multiple low-topped thunderstorms remain embedded
within a broad plume of warm-advection related precipitation across
parts of New England this morning. Both low and mid-level lapse
rates remain quite poor based on the 12Z observed soundings from
OKX/GYX. This is likely hampering updraft intensity to some extent,
with MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less based on latest mesoanalysis
estimates. Even so, a veering/strengthening wind profile has been
noted through low/mid levels with recent VWPs from KBOX/KGYX.
Accounting for current thunderstorm motions yields around 100 m2/s2
of 0-1 km shear, which should be sufficient for occasional low-level
updraft rotation and some threat for a brief tornado. Isolated
damaging winds may also occur with water-loaded downdrafts in the
more linear structures that can be maintained.

..Gleason.. 07/16/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...

LAT...LON   41367285 41907250 43407144 43807088 43597036 42907073
            42427095 41817143 41487179 41237215 41227259 41367285 

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