ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102042 
SPC MCD 102042 
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-102245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1487
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Areas affected...Far southeastern MN...northern WI...and southern
Upper MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 102042Z - 102245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for severe storms capable of damaging winds
and large hail should increase during the next few hours. A watch
may eventually be needed for parts of the area.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite loops indicate deepening cumulus
along an east-west-oriented cold front draped across parts of Upper
MI, northern WI, and east-central MN. Continued diurnal
destabilization amid frontal convergence should support increasing
convective development during the next couple hours in the vicinity
of the front as it moves slowly southward. Around 40 kt of effective
shear oriented parallel to the cold front should favor a couple
organized clusters and perhaps supercell structures capable of
damaging winds and isolated large hail. With the stronger deep-layer
flow/shear generally confined to the cool side of the cold front, it
is somewhat unclear how organized storms will be as they progress
southward into the stronger surface-based instability into the early
evening. Environmental and convective trends will be monitored
during the next couple hours for a potential watch issuance.

..Weinman/Mosier.. 07/10/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   45328659 45948623 46208640 46318677 46278740 46228833
            46138997 45989094 45789198 45579268 45309326 45019348
            44579354 44199316 44009271 44039203 44129150 44439022
            44668915 44978716 45328659 

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