ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 271527 
SPC MCD 271527 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-OKZ000-271700-

Mesoscale Discussion 1303
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Areas affected...western into southern AR...northeast
LA...west-central MS

Concerning...Outlook upgrade 

Valid 271527Z - 271700Z

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm cluster may eventually move into the
ArkLaMiss region during the afternoon and will be monitored for
possible (60 percent) severe thunderstorm watches.  An upgrade to
Slight Risk will be forthcoming in the 1630 UTC Convective Outlook
for parts of west-central AR southeastward into the ArkLaMiss.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a residual cirrus
canopy from decayed thunderstorms over southern AR late this
morning.  A stratocumulus field resides over eastern OK into
west-central AR downstream from a cluster of severe thunderstorms
over eastern OK.  Surface analysis this morning shows a sharp
moisture and implied buoyancy gradient from southwest to northeast. 
Surface dewpoints near the OK-AR-TX-LA border region are in the
upper 70s to near 80 deg F, whereas dewpoints are in the lower 60s
over northern AR.  

The Little Rock, AR 12 UTC (7am) observed sounding showed moderate
northwesterly flow in the mid levels beneath 65 kt flow around 250
mb.  A similar sampling of flow was observed on the Jackson, MS 12
UTC observed sounding.  Moderate buoyancy 1700-1800 J/kg MLCAPE was
noted on the observed soundings at both Shreveport, LA and Jackson,
MS and notably weaker buoyancy at Little Rock, AR due in large part
to much drier low levels.  

It seems plausible the thunderstorm cluster over OK will continue
into west-central AR and continue to pose a risk for severe gusts as
the complex moves east-southeast along the moisture/buoyancy
gradient.  As the boundary layer continues to warm through the mid
afternoon, the latest thinking is the thunderstorm complex could
continue southeast into the ArkLaMiss region.  Scattered strong to
severe gusts resulting in wind damage will be the primary hazard.

..Smith/Grams.. 06/27/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   34449446 34859450 35129421 35169375 34349252 33359071
            32779074 32329103 32149143 32129177 33389294 34449446 

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