ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 220834 
SPC MCD 220834 
KSZ000-COZ000-221030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1204
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023

Areas affected...southeast Colorado...far southwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 357...

Valid 220834Z - 221030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 357
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts and sporadic large hail remain possible
tonight over southeast Colorado. At least low-end severe potential
may affect parts of southwest Kansas late.

DISCUSSION...Storms over southeast CO have congealed into a small
MCS, with a persistent and discrete supercell on the southern end.
Damaging gusts appear to be the primary threat, with hail in the
more discrete storms. The substantial outflow being produced,
coupled with moist easterly storm-relative flow, suggest the severe
threat will be maintained for at least through watch expiration at
10Z. With time, these storms will move away from the stronger
instability, and interact with a zone of neutral to negative
low-level theta-e advection. As such, severe-storm coverage may thin
with time, favoring southern areas. At least locally severe gusts or
marginal hail may still occur late tonight into far southwest
KS/east of WW 357 with storms riding along the aforementioned
gradient, but additional watches are not expected at this time.

..Jewell.. 06/22/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   37780408 37950406 38500384 38750361 38910337 39010294
            38050130 37440127 37040164 37020267 37240308 37780408 

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