ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 180015 
SPC MCD 180015 
TXZ000-180215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1139
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Areas affected...portions of southwest TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 180015Z - 180215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across
portions of southwest TX in the next few hours. The primary threats
with these storms would be damaging wind gusts and large hail. Watch
issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...A few strong thunderstorms have formed across the
region -- particularly in Crockett County -- to the south of an
ejecting upper-level wave. While stronger forcing resides farther
north, 30-40 kts of mid-level flow is present across the highlighted
area, yielding bulk shear sufficient for sustained updrafts.
Continued storm maturation is uncertain due to quite high LCLs
(around 2500 m per forecast soundings) and the aforementioned
limited upper-level forcing. If storms are able to persist, they
will move into an environment characterized by around 2000-2500 J/kg
MLCAPE and bulk shear supportive of continued severe hazards.
Current VAD profiles at KDFX and KSJT depict veering shear profiles
with around 200 J/kg of effective SRH (assuming more mature,
southeastward storm motions). Efficient ingestion of lower-level SRH
into updrafts should be tempered by diurnal cooling, limiting any
tornado threat, but damaging wind gusts and large hail would be
possible with any mature storms within the next couple of hours.

..Flournoy/Grams.. 06/18/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29630153 29670208 29660246 30340240 30890209 31240142
            31120015 30879891 30449850 29649869 29179998 29040086
            29390118 29630153 

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