ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 161906 
SPC MCD 161906 
NCZ000-162130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1106
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Areas affected...much of central into eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 161906Z - 162130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A sparse damaging gust or instance of marginally severe
hail is possible this afternoon with the stronger storms. The severe
threat will be isolated and a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have been maturing along and
south of the VA/NC border over the past hour or so, with MRMS mosaic
radar data showing 30 dBZ cores reaching 40 kft, suggesting that a
few storms are becoming relatively robust. Given the presence of 8-9
C/km low-level lapse rates (per 18Z mesoanalysis), evaporative
cooling within the boundary layer may allow for a couple of damaging
gusts with the heavier storm cores. Modest strengthening winds with
height are contributing to lengthy hodographs and 35+ kts of
effective bulk shear, which may support an instance or two of
marginally severe hail. Nonetheless, since the severe threat is
expected to remain sparse, a WW issuance is not currently
anticipated.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/16/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

LAT...LON   34827916 35297973 36097981 36517953 36537776 36477653
            36067565 35667558 35187601 34747659 34507758 34557825
            34827916 

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