ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 160313 
SPC MCD 160313 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-160415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1092
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...portions of northeast Texas...far southeast
Oklahoma and northwestern Louisiana.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 160313Z - 160415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will exit WW309 in the next 1-2 hours with a
continued risk primarily for damaging winds hail, and a tornado or
two. A new watch is needed prior to 05z.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing mixed-mode cluster of supercells and short
bowing segments across portions of North Texas have begun to
accelerate southeastward over the last 30 min. Additional storms
moving in from southern Oklahoma should aid in cold pool
acceleration over the next hour. Approaching the eastern edge of
WW309, these storms should continue to move into an unstable and
strongly sheared environment with 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 50-60
kt of effective shear. Given the upscale growth over the last hour,
damaging winds and isolated hail are expected to be the primary
threat into the overnight hours. However, backed low-level flow
along and effective warm front/outflow boundary may still support a
risk for a tornado or two this evening. A new weather watch is
likely needed prior to 0500z across portions of Northeast TX,
southeastern OK and northwestern LA.

..Lyons/Grams.. 06/16/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33049325 32899328 32359365 32229398 32189433 32379536
            32549582 32639613 32929636 33129628 33709602 33989584
            34149573 34339507 34329470 34259435 33899354 33509317
            33049325 

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